Introduction

For the foreseeable future, the role of religion in Europe will be increasingly determined by the heightened battle between traditional Judeo-Christian forces, the increasingly popular secularist movement, and the rising tide of Muslim immigrants. This predicament could indeed become the most crucial societal and political challenge for Europe throughout the remainder of the 21^st century. The root causes of this predicament are numerous. However, those causes can be arguably narrowed down to three – Europe’s flawed immigration policies (at the EU level and individual countries level), the consequences of the recent rapid expansion of the EU’s membership to 25 states, which include outspoken Catholic populations (Poland, Slovakia, and Malta), and the increasing influence of the secularist movement.

Religion in Europe

Europe is comprised of nations whose populations are still predominately Christian. However, societal trends over the past twenty-years reveal dramatic changes that show no signs of abating and will further challenge Europe’s historical Christian population base. In general, Europe’s indigenous population has been declining for decades, primarily due to the rise of women in the workforce as family sizes have been shrinking. As a result, Europe’s future and existing workforce populations are increasingly relying upon immigrants. Furthermore, the growing trend among these immigrants is that they are overwhelmingly non-Christian.

Based on current reproductive trends, Germany, between 2005 and 2050, is expected to lose in native population the equivalent of the entire population of the former East Germany (approximately 16 million), while Spain over the same period is expected to lose more than 35 percent of its population. European society will have no choice but to continue to accept immigrants to make-up for this demographic deficit. In turn, without foreseeable mass conversions to Christianity, Islam, the religion of the majority of those immigrants will further challenge Christianity as Europe’s dominant religion. This would indeed be ironic given Europe’s historical religious wars which saw Christians versus Muslims – yet, this time the crescent may indeed defeat the cross.

In the post-World War II era, Christianity in Europe, as measured in public worship trends, has been in a severe decline. Based on recent poll results, Europeans have continued to abandon their Christian heritage. In France, only 5 percent of the population attends a religious service each week, with the demographics skewed to the aged. Studies have further revealed that only 15 percent of Italians attend weekly, while roughly 30 percent of Germans still attend church services at least once a month. Moreover, only 21 percent of Europeans hold religion to be ‘very important.’ In France, the most secular of Europe’s nations outside of the formerly Lutheran northern European countries, the percentage is only roughly 10 percent. In comparison to the US, a recent survey by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life determined that nearly three times as many Americans called their faith ‘very important.’

The Challenge of Secularism

The popularity of European secularism continues to rise and challenge Europe’s traditional Judeo-Christian traditions. Today, the premise that one’s faith, in whatever belief that may be, as something deeply personal, continues to gain acceptance across the continent. European secularism is not understood as necessarily hostile to religion. In France, the term denotes a level playing field, on which the state allows all religions to operate freely, but stands aside. In other European countries, it would be interpreted as an indifference to faith.

The statistics presented above support that fact, which until recently most clergy had denied. However, people vote with their feet. Terry Sanderson, vice president of the National Secular Society in the UK recently stated, “…people don’t want churches to tell them how to behave…[in contrast, the] adherence to a traditional religion by citizens is to ignore the long, bloody history of [this] church and every other church.” Such an opinion has known peaks and troughs over the centuries, but it is relatively new to Europe. The differences are rooted in the 18^th century, when the Enlightenment, the philosophical revolution that laid the foundations of the modern Western world, was interpreted quite differently by American and Europeans, especially in one crucial aspect.

Grace Davie, professor of religion at Exeter University, recently commented that in Europe the Enlightenment was seen as freedom from religion – getting away from dogma; whereas in the US, it meant freedom to believe. In America, religious groups are seen as protecting individuals against the interference of the state. In Europe, the post-Enlightenment state is seen as ‘protecting individuals from the intrusion of religious groups’ after centuries during which the official church, be it Catholic or Protestant, had always been closely associated with temporal powers. However, the reality of European history reveals paradoxes. Prior to the expansion of the EU in 2004, fourteen out of the then fifteen member states, recognized either state religions (in northern Europe of the Protestant traditions), established state churches (England) or a concordant with the Vatican.

Nevertheless, the numbers of those holding secularist beliefs or no beliefs remains strong. A BBC poll (from mid-November 2005) reveals that among British young there are more declared non-believers than there are Christians. In all, 43 percent of the 18-24 year olds polled said they had no faith. Such a result runs contrary to the Blair government’s promotion of faith-based education measures. However, those of the secular movement have recently questioned why should a secular state use tax payers’ money to indoctrinate a largely non-believing nation. A significant percentage of those polled believe that state funds should only be spent on secular schools and social services. The increasing importance of the secular movement across the continent is viewed by many as an increasing challenge to traditional faiths, including Islam, and as one of the primary causes for the recent demise of the EU Constitution.

Religion and the European Union

Despite the general intentions of the EU’s founding fathers that Europe had a single cultural identity, the realities of the evolution of European culture over the past half-century prove otherwise. While the EU may boast the achievement of a single currency, now with twenty-five member states it is indeed difficult to argue that it has just one cultural identity.

Also inherent to a given culture is religion. While Europe has historically maintained strong Judeo-Christian traditions, the growing strength of the secularist movement and fears about the rising influence of Islam have led to numerous heated public and private debates concerning the role of religion on the continent among the Strasbourg parliamentarians and the framers of the new draft EU Constitution. In the end, the secular influences prevailed.     

The final version of the Preamble of the draft constitution reads as follows:

Drawing inspiration from the cultural, religious and humanist inheritance of Europe, from which have developed the universal values of the inviolable and inalienable rights of the human person, freedom, democracy, equality and the rule of law…

Believing that Europe, reunited after bitter experiences, intends to continue along the path of civilization, progress and prosperity, for the good of all its inhabitants, including the weakest and most deprived…” 

Article 1-3 of the Union’s Objective reads as follows:

“It shall respect its rich cultural and linguistic diversity, and shall ensure that Europe's cultural heritage is safeguarded and enhanced.”

In each of these sections of the draft Constitution, Europe’s cultural, humanist, and religious values, which developed inalienable rights, are mentioned along with the union’s objective to safeguard its cultural heritage. However, unlike the US Declaration of Independence and Constitution, the document fails to mention any reference to God or a supreme being as the originator of these rights. Despite the fact that the negative votes cast by the French and Dutch electorates during spring 2005 defeated the Constitution as the EU’s governing document, the wording contained in these sections still does not sit well with most EU voters and citizens.

In 1992, Jacques Delors, then President of the European Commission, called for a ‘soul of Europe’ arguing that if Brussels was not able to inject a spiritual dimension into the EU, it would fail to command the allegiance of its citizens. While many EU policymakers have since heeded Delors’ insistence as the catalyst for further community unity, time and the addition of ten new member states have given rise to very strongly divided opinions about the definition of the ‘spiritual dimension.’

Prior to his elevation to become Pope Benedict XVI, Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger stated “…it has been said that the European Commission could not speak of the Judeo-Christian roots of Europe because it would offend Islam…but, that which offends Islam is a lack of respect for God and the arrogance of reason.” Such a position challenged the secularist camp and the Christian sector which has been enhanced with the rising presence of the traditional values-based representatives of the conservative states of Poland, Slovakia, and Malta. However, the secularist camp has continued to claim victories within the past year especially with the rejection of the conservative Christian Rocco Buttiglione’s candidacy for a senior European Commission post and the Spanish electorate’s recent approval of same-sex marriage and liberal abortion codes.

Such setbacks for the traditional Christian sector of European society have led many of the clergy to speak-out to defend the faith and seek support for Delors’ intention. For example, Cardinal Murphy-O’Connor of Westminster recently reflected on supportive comments by Pope Benedict XVI soon after his election about the reality of the pressures on Europe’s traditional cultural faith  “… [the Pope] understood that Europe has a soul, [one] imbued by the Christian faith, and that the neglect of that soul is shriveling our continent to the detriment of all.” Cardinal Ratzinger' choice of Benedict as his papal name honors Europe’s patron saint. Thus, from the outset of his reign, Pope Benedict XVI has sent the message that he intends to recall Europe to its Christian roots to solidify its traditional character against the increasing challenges of secularism and radical Islam.

Islam in Europe

Europe and Islam have been at odds throughout history from the time of the Crusades, to the expulsion of the Spanish Moors, to the Ottoman defeat at the gates of Vienna, to the horrors of the Serbs’ ethnic cleansings, and to the recent Islamic fundamentalist attacks on Madrid and London. Furthermore, during modern history, the challenge of Islam for Europe can also be viewed as a consequence of imperialism.

The rebuilding of Germany and Austria following World War II arguably could not have been possible without the supply of Turkish ‘guest workers.’ The conclusion of France’s long and brutal campaign against Algeria led to an incessant tide of immigrants from North Africa. The opportunities made available to Commonwealth citizens to immigrate to the UK, especially following the independence of their respective nations, have also led to a steady stream of immigrants to Europe.   

The three basic models of European integration have flaws. The ‘guest worker’ model, now largely discredited, was based on the premise that immigrants were temporary laborers who would eventually go home. However, they never did and their European-born children have begun demanding citizenship and equal rights. The integration model, now recently adopted by Germany, has produced a wave of naturalizations in recent years and children born in the country to foreign parents now receive citizenship at birth. The UK has followed an immigration policy more like that of the US, extending citizenship to immigrants and encouraging strong ethnic communities that help themselves and give them a political vote in a larger society. Yet, heightened pressures for enhanced labor opportunities and greater representation in parliament have been increasingly heard.

The societal pressures from Islam’s rise across Europe and especially in the wake of the September 11^th tragedy have led several governments to take a restrictive stance on cultural tolerances. The most notable has been in France. President Chirac’s decision in 2003 to call for a law banning the wearing of Muslim head scarves, Jewish skullcaps, and large Christian crosses in French public schools was met with an unusual spate of UK and US official and public criticism. Some of the critics of France’s policy probably deemed that the integration of Muslims within Western societies was too global an issue to be mishandled.

In 1905, France issued its law creating a separation of church and state under the Third Republic, which had elevated Jews and Protestants to positions of prominence. Given the turbulent past, it is easy to understand who so many French people rally around a secular republic as the only guarantor of national peace. As reporter Diane Pinto of The New York Times recently commented, “…[the French] are all too aware that their nation is a boat with a complex religious balance, one that could easily be upset with the arrival of a particularly boisterous ‘passenger’, modern Islam…integrating Islam within the republic within the spirit of today’s pluralist and multicultural outlook could awaken jealously of the other ‘domesticated’ religions, which were never given a choice.”

The basic value structure of France’s Fifth Republic – libertie, equalitie, fraternitie – has not been experienced by all. Most recent immigrants, the majority of whom are from North Africa and mostly Muslim, have not enjoyed the basic rights guaranteed to all citizens under the constitution. France has a population of 5 million Muslims, Europe’s largest enclave. While the French national unemployment rate hovers around 10 percent, among French-Arabs and French-Africans, it is as high as 30 percent. Complicating this issue are the very tight employment opportunities granted by the labor union bureaucracies.

“There can be no comparison between us and what happens elsewhere…”, the late President Mitterrand assured his countrymen when he commented on the Los Angeles riots in 1982, and “…for France is the country where the level of social protection is the highest in the world.” Such comments from more than twenty years ago now fall flat in the wake of last November’s nights of terror across France. The incidents, sparked by the accidental electrocution of two teenage African immigrants who believed they were being pursued by the police, unleashed dramatic episodes of civil violence exceeding those seen during the 1968 uprisings. What caused such wide-spread violence? Was it all pre-meditated and all centered around religious discrimination? Numerous opinions have surfaced to answer these questions. Los Angeles Times columnist Max Boot had one of the most profound answers, “…lack of economic opportunity is not…the only reason why France faces growing insecuritie from a surly underclass congregated in dingy banlieues (suburbs). France defines itself in ethnic, cultural, and religious terms that can leave non-Caucasian and non-Christian outsiders feeling excluded, despite how long they have lived there. Perhaps the flames emanating from Clichy-sous-Bois will illuminate Europe’s problems and burn down some of the barriers to change.”

Although French Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy eventually came forth with promised changes to the labor sector, his heated reactions to the initial outbreaks of violence included that it was his intention to clean-up the ‘scum’ which carried-out these violent acts. His comments arguably heightened their intensity and numbers and led them to appear across France, not just among the Parisian suburbs. In early 2005, then head of the UMP, Sarkozy took a more conciliatory stance when commenting on the presence of Islam in France, “…we need an Islam that is respectful of the republic and recognizes its secular traditions.” The growing societal pressures from France and other European nations’ rising immigrant communities will only continue to challenge the policymakers who are already contending with political and economic challenges from burdening welfare systems, ageing populations, stagnant growth prospects, and EU membership responsibilities.

Conclusion

Europe in the 21^st century finds itself at many different crossroads facing an array of significant challenges. Following the realization of a functioning, formal ‘union’ after more than 50 years of peace, the majority of Europe’s present challenges stem from cultural, political, and economic sectors. Among the most daunting of them is the future role of religion within the continent’s ever-evolving population structure.

The rising tide of immigration, as a consequence of Europe’s imperialist years, has become one of the most significant catalysts for cultural change across the continent. The majority of these immigrants are not adherents of the traditional Christian faith, but of Islam. Although it has been previously written that “Europe ends where western Christianity ends and Islam and Orthodoxy begins,” such statements obviously no longer apply to present realities. Rising continent-wide negative sentiment toward Turkey’s application for EU membership, especially voiced by the new German coalition government, and the recent violent backlash against the Danish and Austrian consulates in many Muslim nations following those European nations’ newspapers’ publication of defamatory caricatures of the Prophet Mohammed have further stoked the burning resentment against Islamic cultural and political influences within Europe.

Also strongly influencing European cultural and political change is the increasing popularity of the secularist movement. Although the movement has been countered by traditionalist Christian forces, it strongly influenced the electoral defeat of the draft EU Constitution. The presence of the traditional Christian forces will be interesting to watch as their ranks decline with the aging of their proponents. In turn, they will be replaced in the demographics by immigrants, who, in the majority, will not be Christians.

What it is to be a ‘European’ will continue to be defined as the 21^st century unfolds. While there are many unanswered questions to Europe’s challenging political, economic, and cultural predicaments, what is now almost certain is that the future of the continent will be shaped by cultural forces unlike any previously seen in modern history. The result could elevate Islam as Europe’s dominant religion. Policymakers’ responses to this mounting challenge will pressure European society for the foreseeable future.

The opinions reflected in this report are those of the author and not necessarily of KWR International, Inc.